Hollywood Crossroads

You hear it all the time here in Los Angeles, things are really dire right now for so many people out of work. Despite the announcement of 26 new shows to be filmed in Los Angeles in 2026, it’s still a drop in the bucket compared to what we lost. Tent pole films with $250m budgets are turning out slop at this point, and people aren’t showing up. A talent agent friend of mind told me how “influencers” are their biggest growth driver, and he is so disgusted that he mentioned the idea of doing political consulting instead. Hollywood in many ways has reached the bottom of the barrel. A lot of this has to do with mergers and corporate structures dictating strategy in a way that has seen entire mid-budget genres eliminated, but it also has to do with the people they fired along the way. They’re at the FAFO stage now as a result of this. But what comes next, is it all doom and gloom?

I saw the writing on the wall in 2019 and left production while turning down any opportunities which came my way before the pandemic crashed everything to the ground. Even while at Warner Bros. in a UX-adjacent role, our new corporate overlords (we called them “the phone company people” then) removed the iconic Warner Bros. shield from our intranet, which was called “the shield.” When hedge fund titan Zaslav took over years later, he fired all of the people who made HBO a success. There’s a new ruling class in charge, and it’s definitely affected the mood.

These people are here for one reason only: to make money. But as they race to bottom of the barrel content-wise, the money is no longer as consistent as it was. Let’s take a look at the last few major franchises showing signs of franchise fatigue by moviegoers.

Universal Studio’s Jurassic World: Rebirth: $265mm budget (probably a similar marketing budget) earned $868mm worldwide, and $339mm domestic. That’s a 14.3% decrease from the last outing, which grossed over $1bb worldwide and $376mm domestic. However, ancillary revenue from theme parks and merchandise still make this franchise an obvious cash cow.

Paramount’s Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning: $400mm budget (!!) earned $598mm worldwide and only $197mm domestic. It probably didn’t even make back its marketing budget. That is insane! While an increase over the last outing, it’s not the numbers they probably desired.

The latest Marvel offerings, The Fantastic Four: First Steps and Captain America: Brave New World both failed to hit $600mm worldwide. The former barely did $500mm, while the latter only grossed $415mm worldwide. Fantastic Four had an estimated budget of $300mm and Captain America had a budget estimated to be around $300mm due to costly re-shoots. These superhero films used to routinely gross $1BB worldwide. There is no way that either of these films can be seen as a success even if they did cover their budget.

Detractors will say, what about franchises like Minecraft? I’d counter by saying Disney animated films and films aimed at children tend to be the exception because they always do well. If you look at massively budgeted general audience films, they are making less money. Overall, theatrical attendance is down 7% from 2024, which is down 23% from 2019. There is no question that the pandemic changed moviegoing habits. People are much more in the mindset of waiting for something to come out on streaming, and even if it doesn’t they’ve already forgotten about it. The younger generation is content to watch YouTube, Twitch or TikTok on their phones for free. But Hollywood still has the power to be a tastemaker and give people the incentive to turn out, but they’re producing slop too! The only difference is that their slop costs several hundred million to make and market.

Take Tron: Ares as an example. This film was genuinely terrible in all respects. It cost $347mm to produce and market. It only made $58mm domestic, with a paltry $107mm– a total failure. Audiences are always going to vote with their dollar. If Hollywood continues to place all its eggs in a small basket of super expensive films that feel like they were written by ChatGPT and directed in a Unity game engine, people will choose other content. This is just bad business sense, how many smaller films could have been made for that budget? Even if half of them earned their money back, it would be better than this costly miss.

If the Academy Awards are the bar of what it means to be cinematically prestigious, let’s take a look at what sort of film has dominated the awards scene?

In 2025 the following films were nominated for Best Picture (excluding streamers):

1. I’m Still Here (foreign). $1.5m budget and $35mm worldwide box office.
2. A Complete Unknown. $40-50m budget and $141mm worldwide box office.
3. The Substance. $17m budget and $78mm worldwide box office.
4. Conclave. $20mm budget and $121mm worldwide box office.
5. Dune: Part Two (franchise). $190mm budget with a $741mm worldwide box office.
6. Nickel Boys (limited release): $23mm budget with only $3mm in box office due to limited run.
7. Wicked (franchise). $150mm budget with $741mm worldwide box office.

In 2024 the following films were nominated for Best Picture (excluding Zone of Interest for which no data is available):

1. The Holdovers. $13mm budget, $45mm worldwide box office.
2. Oppenheimer. $100mm budget, $975mm worldwide box office.
3. American Fiction. Less than $10mm budget, $25mm worldwide box office.
4. Poor Things (winner). $35mm with $110mm worldwide box office.
5. Past Lives. $12mm budget with $42mm worldwide box office.
6. Barbie (franchise). $145mm budget with a whopping $1.4bb worldwide box office haul.
7. Anatomy of a Fall. $36mm world wide box office.

The thing these films have in common is that most are small independent films or foreign films. Most of them are financially successful. While they may not do the numbers larger franchises do, they are profitable. They represent a clear opportunity to diversify investment. While these awards scene films may be more limited in audience appeal, there is no reason you cannot invest in smaller projects and back them accordingly, especially when they cost a fraction of what a film like Tron costs to make and market. Franchises will always be a part of the ecosystem, but does everything have to be a big recognizable franchise or name? Are we going to see a KoolAid movie, per the running joke in Apple TV’s brilliant comedy, The Studio?

I have been pretty critical of the philistine direction of Hollywood for many years now. I do believe we are at the collective bottom in that there is no way but up. The mood in town is clear. When I hear things like “we have VFX shots before we even have a script,” or “The MCU makes us work around VFX shots and constantly makes us change things, we often don’t even have completed scripts during principle shoots,” it makes me realize just how sloppy the content mill is. Audiences are starting to recognize that. When you can get slop on your phones for free, why pay $20 plus concessions to see the same old tired heroes on the screen?

The enshittification of everything, as tech writer Cory Doctorow calls it, has not spared Hollywood as a victim. The never ending greed of late stage capitalism has made everything worse in a race to the collective bottom. I still believe that Hollywood can become a tastemaker again. But where are the movie stars? We have Brad Pitt staring in a racing film in a role that should have gone to someone half his age, but we don’t have a new generation of movie stars any more. The most famous young people are all influencers. So in a way, we have ourselves to blame too. But I still believe Hollywood has something better than content, it has brand prestige, history and billions at its disposal to continue to craft culture as it has done for over 100 years. This is not the first time Hollywood has had to course correct either. After the proliferation of Westerns and studio contract films in the 40s and 50s led to declining viewership, the late 60s and 70s gave us New Hollywood. Revival is always possible. Maybe the bloated budget franchise slop is just this generations western, we can hope!

I believe that the people working at all levels of this industry cannot wait for a more diversified filmmaking ecosystem, and as franchise fatigue continues to take hold, I think we will see that diversified cinema (not content!) return. Give people something they cannot get on the small screen or their phones, give the next generation commercial art to be inspired by. Give young people new heartthrobs to follow and lust over. Let’s get back to the basics! Take risks, and believe in your filmmakers and artists and you will likely reap the rewards. But continuing to produce expensive slop runs the risk of collapsing the entire ecosystem. I choose to be optimistic about Hollywood, I think while we may never see it reach the heights of the 1990s or 1980s, I think we will see a cinematic revival, and if we do, it may be enough to avoid total content collapse and the death of movie theaters as we know it.